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Strategic Reflections Syria and the Upcoming Scenarios

Strategic Reflections

In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

Written by: Mustafa bin Khalid

London, 16/12/2024

Syria and the Upcoming Scenarios

1. The Syrian Context:

The Fall of Assad and the Consequences of the Moment

The supposed control of the opposition marks the end of a prolonged phase of the Syrian conflict, but it signals the beginning of a far more complex chapter. Since 2011, the Syrian regime has focused on maintaining power at all costs, leveraging external alliances (Iran and Russia) to preserve its grip. Assad’s fall could result in the disintegration of what remains of the state structure, especially since the armed opposition is not a unified entity but a mix of factions with conflicting interests.

Potential Risks:

The absence of the current regime could create a vacuum that may be filled by new conflicts among internal and external powers. Syria is not an isolated case; it is a strategic nexus entangling multiple international interests (Turkey, Iran, Russia, the United States, and Israel), with each seeking to reshape the system to suit its objectives.

2. Repeating Chaos Scenarios in the Arab World

Similarities with Iraq, Libya, and Yemen:

The Syrian situation closely mirrors what transpired in Iraq, Libya, and Yemen. Countries that underwent revolutions or military interventions often ended up in deep chaos due to:

 • The absence of a viable political alternative capable of managing the state.

 • The overlapping of external interests.

 • Weak national institutions, rendering them incapable of withstanding the collapse of central authority.

The Role of International Powers:

Western nations that supported uprisings often withdraw once regimes are toppled, leaving a vacuum exploited by militias or regional powers. In Syria, the withdrawal or reduction of international forces could result in a scenario similar to Libya after Gaddafi’s fall.

3. Israeli Intervention and Its Implications

Targeting Syria’s Military Infrastructure:

Israel has seized the moment to target Syria’s military infrastructure, including land, air, and naval assets. This is not new, as Israel has consistently carried out strikes over the past decade against what it perceives as Iranian threats in Syria. Following Assad’s fall, Israel has sought to expand its influence in the Golan Heights and advanced deeper into Syrian territory to establish new red lines for the emerging regime.

International Indifference:

The international silence regarding Israeli actions reflects a double standard in global politics. Major powers often overlook Israeli violations in exchange for strategic interests, further complicating Syria’s situation and eroding Syrians’ trust in international support.

4. The Internal Syrian Landscape:

Post-Assad Challenges

 • Fragmentation of Armed Factions:

The multitude of armed factions will make rapid stabilization difficult. These factions differ ideologically and politically, and their ability to agree on a unified vision for the country’s future remains highly challenging.

 • The Kurdish Issue:

The Kurds see Assad’s fall as an opportunity to gain greater autonomy or even establish their own state. This is a red line for Turkey, which will use all means to prevent the formation of an independent Kurdish entity on its borders.

 • The Deep State:

Even with Assad gone, remnants of the old regime, including security and military apparatuses, could continue to play a disruptive role, hindering efforts to rebuild the state.

5. International and Regional Interventions:

Redistribution of Influence:

Major and regional powers (Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Iran) are vying to divide influence in Syria to secure their interests. This could result in a de facto partition of Syrian territory or, at the very least, the emergence of semi-independent zones of influence.

The Iranian and Turkish Roles:

 • Iran might agree to a tactical retreat in exchange for preserving its strategic interests in the region.

 • Turkey will aim to shape a new system that prevents the establishment of a Kurdish entity and addresses the Syrian refugee crisis, which exerts internal pressure on Ankara.

The Russian and American Roles:

 • Russia seeks to maintain its foothold in Syria through arrangements with the new regime.

 • The United States will likely focus on preventing the resurgence of terrorism and ensuring Israel’s security.

6. Lessons Learned:

Can the Worst-Case Scenario Be Avoided?

 • Post-Conflict Management:

The most significant challenge for Syria today is building new state institutions capable of uniting the various factions and ensuring a minimum level of stability. Experiences in Iraq, Yemen, and Libya demonstrate that the absence of such institutions leads to prolonged conflicts.

 • The Role of the International Community:

Major powers and international organizations must abandon the “topple regimes and withdraw” policy. Supporting Syria requires a long-term commitment to reconstruction and institution-building while avoiding interventions driven by self-serving agendas.

 • Public Awareness:

Syrians must realize that toppling Assad is not the end of the struggle but the beginning of a long and arduous path toward building a new state. National unity and avoiding internal conflicts are the only ways to prevent the repetition of Libya and Yemen’s experiences.

Conclusion:

The Story Isn’t Over Yet

The Syrian story remains unfinished. It is not a unique case but part of a broader tragedy engulfing the Arab region. The real challenge today is not merely in overthrowing oppressive regimes but in building states capable of achieving stability and prosperity for their people.

We wish our Syrian brothers success in realizing their aspirations for justice, development, and the establishment of a modern civil state.

Indeed, Allah is the ultimate guide.